Timely Macroeconomic Indicators for 2023
Abstract
Amidst the consensus that an economic downturn is soon arriving, this paper puts forth six indicators to predict when the next recession will start, understand when it is occurring as well as confirm when it has ended. By focusing on indicators with a shorter leading interval, an estimate for when a recession properly starts should be forecasted two to three quarters in advance, an understanding of when the recession has started within one quarter, and confirmation of when it has ended within three to four quarters.
About the Author
Bennett Fees
Bennett is a student at UC Berkeley double majoring in Political Economy and Rhetoric. At Hoskin Capital, he specializes in investment-centered economic research. When he’s not reading, Bennett enjoys cooking and playing the drums.
